Research Wednesday | March 12, 2025

Dear Friends,

This week’s evidence comes from Trump Administration statements regarding the dismantling of the US Department of Education. Although these announcements have created considerable anxiety among school districts that depend on USDOE funds – especially schools with high percentages of high-poverty students and high percentages of special education students – there are some hopeful signs on the horizon. 

First, the administration has pledged to continue Title 1 and IDEA (Individuals with Disabilities Education Act) funds and, importantly, pledged not to dismantle programs that were enacted by Congress. The growing concerns from schools - including those in red states and poor rural areas – will keep the pressure on Congress and the Administration not to discontinue these sources of funding. The only alternatives would be to raise local taxes – something no Congress person wants to be blamed for – or a reduction in services. 

Second, one likely alternative to federal administration of Title 1 and other programs is block grants to the states. While that sounds appealing to the “give the power back to the states” crowd, it ignores the fact that many states have split educational governance – some ruled by the elected state board of education members and state superintendents, and others ruled by the governor’s office, two groups that can have differing educational agendas. Moreover, with those controlled by the governor’s office, with Florida being the prime example, the criteria for administering state funds include not only the financial need stipulated in Title 1 and IDEA but also compliance with curriculum dictates of the state. These curriculum requirements land particularly hard on social studies curricula, where “American Exceptionalism” and the – quite literal – whitewashing of history is a priority. Science classes will also be hit hard with demands to teach “both sides” of the evolution debate. Next up, teaching “both sides” of the gravity debate. 

Funds that schools desperately need will be diverted to publishers who are only too happy to meet the newly emerging curriculum requirements and, of course, to legions of attorneys who will take litigation far into the future without resolving the issues. 

So the news is not all bad. In my mind, the biggest threat to school funding is the declining enrollment of students, the biggest variable in school funding. There are already 1.5 million students who left during COVID and have not come back to school. You will see some states closing hundreds of schools in order to make the budget equation work, along with longer bus rides for students and worse working conditions for teachers. Finally, if we don’t get ahead of the persistent academic losses due to school closures during COVID, we will continue to have 9th graders who cannot read their textbooks and who will ultimately continue to contribute to the pending dropout crisis.

The good news, is that Creative Leadership can help. We have an established track record of saving thousands of failures especially in the high-failure areas of secondary math and science. When we were asked about the “return on investment” of our work, the quick answer was that our ability to reduce failures creates revenues for schools that far exceeds the expense.